Future methane emissions from the heavy-duty natural gas transportation sector for stasis,high, medium,and low scenarios in 2035

Today’s heavy-duty natural gas–fueled fleet is estimated to represent less than 2% of the total fleet. However, over the next couple of decades, predictions are that the percentage could grow to represent as much as 50%. Although fueling switching to natural gas could provide a climate benefit relative to diesel fuel, the potential for emissions of methane (a potent greenhouse gas) from natural gas–fueled vehicles has been identified as a concern. Since today’s heavy-duty natural gas–fueled fleet penetration is low, today’s total fleet-wide emissions will be also be low regardless of per vehicle emissions. However, predicted growth could result in a significant quantity of methane emissions. To evaluate this potential and identify effective options for minimizing emissions, future growth scenarios of heavy-duty natural gas–fueled vehicles, and compressed natural gas and liquefied natural gas fueling stations that serve them, have been developed for 2035, when the populations could be significant. The scenarios rely on the most recent measurement campaign of the latest manufactured technology, equipment, and vehicles reported in a companion paper as well as projections of technology and practice advances. These “pump-to-wheels”(PTW) projections do not include methane emissions outside of the bounds of the vehicles and fuel stations themselves and should not be confused with a complete wells-to-wheels analysis. Stasis, high, medium, and low scenario PTW emissions projections for 2035 were 1.32%, 0.67%, 0.33%, and 0.15% of the fuel used. The scenarios highlight that a large emissions reductions could be realized with closed crankcase operation, improved best practices, and implementation of vent mitigation technologies. Recognition of the potential pathways for emissions reductions could further enhance the heavy-duty transportation sectors ability to reduce carbon emissions.

Implications: Newly collected pump-to-wheels methane emissions data for current natural gas technologies were combined with future market growth scenarios, estimated technology advancements, and best practices to examine the climate benefit of future fuel switching. The analysis indicates the necessary targets of efficiency, methane emissions, market penetration, and best practices necessary to enable a pathway for natural gas to reduce the carbon intensity of the heavy-duty transportation sector.     

Improving the Evaluation of Conservation Programs

Abstract: The evaluation of conservation programs is rare but increasingly important in improving their effectiveness. Regular evaluations of conservation programs and the implementation of recommendations resulting from such assessments are infrequent because of resistance by participants and lack of funding. Evaluations may be internal or external, depending on the purpose of the review and how broadly it is focused. We strongly recommend external peer review of long-term complex conservation programs every 5 years, supported by more frequent (annual) internal reviews. Criteria for success must encompass both biological and social measures and include learning and the application of new knowledge to management. Evaluations must also go beyond monitoring to assess the value of the program. We emphasize the need to include the organization and function of a conservation program (the process) in any evaluation in addition to substantive criteria for success, which usually involve biological measures (numbers). A dysfunctional program organization and process can as effectively cripple a conservation effort as can a major biological catastrophe. We provide examples of different types of conservation program evaluations, including moderated workshops and case-study analysis, and provide advice on the logistics and organization of the review, emphasizing the importance of the evaluation process itself to a successful outcome. One important aspect of an evaluation is having an individual with leadership ability and considerable expertise to organize the format and oversee the review process itself. Second, it is essential at the outset to ensure agreement among the program participants and the review committee on the goals and objectives of the conservation program, what is to be evaluated, and the criteria for defining success. Finally, the best evaluations are inclusive and involve all participants and stakeholders.     

Trends in anecdotal fox sightings in Tasmania accounted for by psychological factors

There has been little evaluation of anecdotal sightings as a means to confirm new incursions of invasive species. This paper explores the potential for equivocal information communicated by the media to account for patterns of anecdotal reports. In 2001, it was widely reported that red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) had been deliberately released in the island state of Tasmania (Australia), although this claim was later revealed to be baseless. Regardless, by 2013 a total of 3153 anecdotal fox sightings had been reported by members of the public, which implied their distribution was wide. For each month in 2001–2003, we defined a monthly media index (MMI) of fox‐related media coverage, an index of their relative seasonal abundance (abundance), and a factor denoting claims of fox evidence (claimed evidence) regardless of its evidentiary quality. We fitted a generalized linear model with Poisson error for monthly totals of anecdotal sightings with factors of year and claimed evidence and covariates of MMI, abundance, and hours of darkness. The collective effect of psychological factors (MMI, claimed evidence, and year) relative to biophysical factors (photoperiod and abundance) was highly significant (χ² = 122.1, df = 6, p < 0.0001), whereas anticipated changes in abundance had no significant influence on reported sightings (p = 0.15). An annual index of fox media from 2001 to 2010 was strongly associated with the yearly tally of anecdotal sightings (p = 0.018). The odds ratio of sightings ranked as reliable by the fox eradication program in any year decreased exponentially at a rate of 0.00643 as the total number of sightings increased (p < 0.0001) and was indicative of an observer‐expectancy bias. Our results suggest anecdotal sightings are highly susceptible to cognitive biases and when used to qualify and quantify species presence can contribute to flawed risk assessments.     

Discounted knowledges: farmers» and residents» understandings of nature conservation goals and policies

Local Biodiversity Action Plans are the preferred policy mechanism for setting and delivering local biodiversity targets in the UK. This paper reviews the kind of knowledge conservation scientists envisage being used to identify and set local targets, and explores the means of incorporating local knowledge into this process. We use a case study of a Wildlife Enhancement Scheme (WES) on the Pevensey Levels, East Sussex, to reveal the understandings that local farmers and residents have of the nature conservation goals and practices associated with the scheme. Drawing on the findings of in-depth discussion groups, we show how farmers challenge both the monopoly of knowledge conservationists profess about nature, and the enlistment of farmers on the scheme as «technicians», motivated solely by financial rewards, rather than as knowledgeable experts who also have emotional attachments and ethical values for nature. Local people use their knowledge of both local farmers, and the industry in general, to challenge the assumption that farmers can be trusted with delivering nature conservation goals. In the absence of a commitment by central government to agree widely-held environmental standards, and a more democratic process of making judgements about what local nature is worth conserving, local residents challenge existing processes designed to conserve nature that are driven by the knowledge and practices of official experts alone. The findings of the study suggest that a widening of the knowledge base on which the goals and practices of nature conservation are founded, and a more deliberative process of making decisions about what nature is important locally, will secure and strengthen public support for local biodiversity action plans.1998 Academic Press     

Numerical Investigation of the Effects of Boundary-Layer Evolution on the Predictions of Ozone and the Efficacy of Emission Control Options in the Northeastern United States

This paper examines the effects of two different planetary boundary-layer (PBL) parameterization schemes – Blackadar and Gayno–Seaman – on the predicted ozone (O₃) concentration fields using the MM5 (Version 3.3) meteorological model and the MODELS-3 photochemical model. The meteorological fields obtained from the two boundary-layer schemes have been used to drive the photochemical model to simulate O₃ concentrations in the northeastern United States for a three-day O₃ episodic period. In addition to large differences in the predicted O₃ levels at individual grid cells, the simulated daily maximum 1-h O₃ concentrations appear at different regions of the modeling domain in these simulations, due to the differences in the vertical exchange formulations in these two PBL schemes. Using process analysis, we compared the differences between the different simulations in terms of the relative importance of chemical and physical processes to O₃ formation and destruction over the diurnal cycle. Finally, examination of the photochemical model's response to reductions in emissions reveals that the choice of equally valid boundary-layer parameterizations can significantly influence the efficacy of emission control strategies.     

3D-QSAR of fungal quorum-sensing inhibiting analogs of farnesol

Thirty-four analogs with variable antifungal activity were selected to develop models for establishing three-dimensional quantitative structure-activity relationships (3D-QSAR). Comparative molecular field analysis (CoMFA) and comparative similarity indices analyses (CoMSIA) were conducted on the group of analogs to determine the structural requirements for selectivity and potency in inhibiting biofilm formation and fungal growth. The best CoMFA model predicted a q² = 0.5 and an r² = 0.991, and revealed that electrostatic properties play a significant role in potency and selectivity. The best CoMSIA model combined electrostatics, hydrogen bond acceptor and donor, and hydrophobic fields with a q² = 0.664 r² = 0.952, S = 0.099, and F = 139.892. The analyses of the contour maps from both models provide significant insight into the structural necessities for a potent compound. Therefore, manipulating various chemical properties of the substituted groups on the farnesol chain can be used to enhance the fungicidal properties of the target compound.     

Structuring sustainability science

It is urgent in science and society to address climate change and other sustainability challenges such as biodiversity loss, deforestation, depletion of marine fish stocks, global ill-health, land degradation, land use change and water scarcity. Sustainability science (SS) is an attempt to bridge the natural and social sciences for seeking creative solutions to these complex challenges. In this article, we propose a research agenda that advances the methodological and theoretical understanding of what SS can be, how it can be pursued and what it can contribute. The key focus is on knowledge structuring. For that purpose, we designed a generic research platform organised as a three-dimensional matrix comprising three components: core themes (scientific understanding, sustainability goals, sustainability pathways); cross-cutting critical and problem-solving approaches; and any combination of the sustainability challenges above. As an example, we insert four sustainability challenges into the matrix (biodiversity loss, climate change, land use changes, water scarcity). Based on the matrix with the four challenges, we discuss three issues for advancing theory and methodology in SS: how new synergies across natural and social sciences can be created; how integrated theories for understanding and responding to complex sustainability issues can be developed; and how theories and concepts in economics, gender studies, geography, political science and sociology can be applied in SS. The generic research platform serves to structure and create new knowledge in SS and is a tool for exploring any set of sustainability challenges. The combined critical and problem-solving approach is essential.     

Idle emissions from heavy-duty diesel vehicles: review and recent data

Heavy-duty diesel vehicle idling consumes fuel and reduces atmospheric quality, but its restriction cannot simply be proscribed, because cab heat or air-conditioning provides essential driver comfort. A comprehensive tailpipe emissions database to describe idling impacts is not yet available. This paper presents a substantial data set that incorporates results from the West Virginia University transient engine test cell, the E-55/59 Study and the Gasoline/Diesel PM Split Study. It covered 75 heavy-duty diesel engines and trucks, which were divided into two groups: vehicles with mechanical fuel injection (MFI) and vehicles with electronic fuel injection (EFI). Idle emissions of CO, hydrocarbon (HC), oxides of nitrogen (NOx), particulate matter (PM), and carbon dioxide (CO2) have been reported. Idle CO2 emissions allowed the projection of fuel consumption during idling. Test-to-test variations were observed for repeat idle tests on the same vehicle because of measurement variation, accessory loads, and ambient conditions. Vehicles fitted with EFI, on average, emitted approximately 20 g/hr of CO, 6 g/hr of HC, 86 g/hr of NOx, 1 g/hr of PM, and 4636 g/hr of CO2 during idle. MFI equipped vehicles emitted approximately 35 g/hr of CO, 23 g/hr of HC, 48 g/hr of NOx, 4 g/hr of PM, and 4484 g/hr of CO2, on average, during idle. Vehicles with EFI emitted less idle CO, HC, and PM, which could be attributed to the efficient combustion and superior fuel atomization in EFI systems. Idle NOx, however, increased with EFI, which corresponds with the advancing of timing to improve idle combustion. Fuel injection management did not have any effect on CO2 and, hence, fuel consumption. Use of air conditioning without increasing engine speed increased idle CO2, NOx, PM, HC, and fuel consumption by 25% on average. When the engine speed was elevated from 600 to 1100 revolutions per minute, CO2 and NOx emissions and fuel consumption increased by >150%, whereas PM and HC emissions increased by approximately 100% and 70%, respectively. Six Detroit Diesel Corp. (DDC) Series 60 engines in engine test cell were found to emit less CO, NOx, and PM emissions and consumed fuel at only 75% of the level found in the chassis dynamometer data. This is because fan and compressor loads were absent in the engine test cell.